Make or Break Weekend Notes
April 9th, 2010By Jude T. Feld
The field listed on Keeneland’s Toyota Blue Grass (G1) draw board.KeenelandPhoto
To read our Kentucky Derby Radar – Chapter 6 click here.
With only three weeks to the Kentucky Derby (G1) it is time to sort the contenders from the pretenders. There is only one last-ditch chance for three-year-olds to amass some all-import graded earnings after Saturday and that is in the Coolmore Lexington (G2) at Keeneland on April 17. Here’s our view of this weekend’s two big preps from the Keeneland pressbox:
TOYOTA BLUE GRASS (G1) – KEENELAND RACE 9
When INTERACTIF closed with a rush to win the Bourbon (G3) at Keeneland last fall, I proclaimed him my Derby horse for 2010. After a troubled third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G2), trainer Todd Pletcher wisely put him away for a Triple Crown campaign. Returned in the grassy Hallandale Beach Stakes at Gulfstream, the son of Broken Vow chased Bim Bam around the course in an effort to win and fell a nose short. Pletcher then sent his charge to Santa Anita for the San Felipe (G2) in an audible called at the last minute. Once again, INTERACTIF was the victim of a lone front-runner, as Sydney’s Candy made every pole, with the Wertheimer colorbearer in hot pursuit late. The Toyota Blue Grass (G1) has been on Pletcher’s radar since that effort and the sure-to-be Hall of Fame trainer has had four weeks to prepare his classy colt for a top effort. The outside draw should allow jockey Rafael Bejarano, who has some of the softest hands in the business, place his mount anywhere he wants early and let INTERACTIF’s class carry him late.
PADDY O’PRADO has been the “buzz horse†all week long by virtue of his two sparkling workouts at Keeneland. From the stable of sharp local trainer Dale Romans, the son of El Prado sports the classic “golden triangle†signs of improvement and has gradually increased his speed figures throughout his career. Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux got familiar with the colt by working him five furlongs on April 3 and has been effusive with praise. It seems like the “wise guys†might be right this time.
Obviously flattered when Eskendereya won the Wood Memorial (G1), PLEASANT PRINCE, who was nailed by Ice Box at the Florida Derby (G1) wire, is a major contender. Both of those Kentucky Derby (G1) hopefuls have now beaten him twice, so the Wesley Ward trainee is going to have to improve some more to be considered a threat. This could be his chance to move forward, but the son of obscure sire Indy King is going to have to lose his tendency to hang in the stretch if he wants to go home with the chrome.
Two seconds and a third behind major Derby contender Lookin At Lucky look pretty good on MAKE MUSIC FOR ME’s past performances. Finally breaking his maiden in the Pasadena Stakes, the son of Bernstein runs well on Polytrack and owns a solid closing kick. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith seems to have a way with him and a big performance for talented trainer Alexis Barba would not be a shocker.
I was not impressed with the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) as the stretch run looked like a pinball game that nobody wanted to win. ODYSSEUS got his nose down at the right time, but the race was hardly endorsed when runner-up Schoolyard Dreams finished unplaced in the Wood Memorial (G1). Trainer Tom Albertrani is a sharp guy and he has the utmost confidence in the son of Spendthrift Farm stallion Malibu Moon, so I may stand corrected post-Toyota Blue Grass (G1) on Saturday.
Trainer D. Wayne Lukas holds a hot hand in the Arkansas Derby (G1)Oaklawn Park Photo
ARKANSAS DERBY (G1) – OAKLAWN PARK RACE 9
Reportedly Robert Baker and William Mack, the owners of DUBLIN, wanted a “name†jockey to pilot their colt from the Rebel (G2) through the Kentucky Derby (G1). They replaced Terry Thompson, who had ridden the son of Afleet Alex to a nice second in the Southwest (G3), with Oaklawn’s leading rider, Corey Nakatani. The experiment turned out to be a “be careful what you wish for†moment, as Nakatani moved too soon four-wide and DUBLIN weakened in the stretch. Not all the blame can be placed on the rider however, as Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas pounded two bullet works into his colt between races. They undoubtedly sharpened him up, but they took a little starch out of him as well. Reunited with Thompson this afternoon and with a gentler training schedule, DUBLIN looks very tough to beat in the Arkansas Derby (G1).
Other than Lookin At Lucky and Vale of York, there are very few horses who can beat NOBLE PROMISE. Never out of the money in seven lifetime starts, this is his best chance to step into the Derby spotlight. By Cuvee out of a Clever Trick mare, the Kenny McPeek trainee is bred more for Quarterhorse races than a mile and a quarter, but he seems to outrun his sprinter’s pedigree with regularity. Jockey Robby Albarado got to know him in the Rebel (G2) and may have figured out how to time the handsome colt’s finish.
Although the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) was far from impressive, I am willing to cut SUPER SAVER some slack. Making his first start of the year, the son of Maria’s Mon set a quick pace on a tiring track and still managed to only get beat a half-length. A bullet work at Palm Meadows since indicates the Todd Pletcher trainee is on the right path. Multiple Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Calvin Borel, who was aboard for the colt’s Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) victory, takes the reins for this race so all systems are go. It is make or break time for the WinStar Farm homebred.
Like most horses in the Lukas barn, NORTHERN GIANT was raced into shape. His 11-length maiden breaker in his sixth start was a harbinger of good things to come for the son of Giant’s Causeway. He followed up that victory with a third place finish in the Risen Star (G3) at Fair Grounds and then ran second in the Lane’s End (G2) at Turfway Park. With Borel jumping off to ride SUPER SAVER, Lukas hired jockey Garrett Gomez’s close friend Victor Espinoza to guide his colt. Both Lukas and Espinoza are familiar with the Kentucky Derby (G1) winners’ circle so they cannot be counted out just yet.
